Saturday, February 27, 2010

Going Foward

From a sudden doom caused by a financial collapse to a some what uncertain but stable financial system, it would be and understatement to say that in the last 52 weeks things have changed drastically. To get us where we are now a lot of unpresidented actions were set into motion of which effects have yet to be realized. We have come far as country and as a trader I am always contemplation what is to come. Given the shape of the current economy it is apparent that for the GDP to grow the unemployment rate must shrink. Lately media outlets have been increasingly making light of this. I take pride in being a trader and in doing such I find it important to become abreast of may of the fundamental blocks of the markets we trade. It is my opinion that going forward it will be the vast amounts of innovations in the tech sector that will bring us to economic prosperity. 

In the Geek/Nerd world there has been may products that have hit the market that drastically increase the ability to process information at a high speed as well as share that information with others. And the speeds at which these devices communicate and process data have all but come short of Moore's Law. Over the next seven days with the theme of "Going Forward" I will cover the companies that I think will play a vital role in a healthy economic recovery. These companies will primarily be from the tech sector. Not only because of my bias for tech in general but lets not forget the vast amounts of cash many big cap tech companies have on their balance sheets. 

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Charts of Interest

Bidu the Chinese Google

With China's economy booming and holding a good portion of U.S. Debt. It should be logically that there internet traffic should rise as consumers use innovations in search to make ease of day to day issues. Over the long term this leads me to believe that as consumers move over to a mobile internet solution that will be provided by the wide spread adaptation of smart phone usage. As can be see by the following charts, Bidu is poised to make a significant move in one of to directions and I believe it is headed much higher....

Bidu Hourly



Bidu Daily


Bidu Weekly





The wonderful would of Google

If you are reading then I am sure that you are familiar with the internet giant, Google.  You probably found this blog by googleing some search term that was relevant to this post. Although search is the core business that generates revenue for Google, there are may things that are in the short term pipeline that should increase there margins Ill save the things that go own behind the scenes of the curtains at Google for a later post. But looking a the chart one could see that though they have weathered a couple rough weeks they still have a ways to go to the upside.... So what caused the last pullback? Was it the threat to pull out of china, or the law suit from the Italian government, or was it the fact that Iran banned them from the countries internet? While I believe that these facts may have played some part in the recent decline I believe that it is mostly just technicals. With that said I think that Google is now prime for a averaging in type of buying style. I would consider buying anywhere from here to the 500 dollar mark with 498 as my stop. 

Goog Hourly


Goog Daily


Goog Weekly





And for the chart of most interest!!!!

So what do we have here. We have bidu which is in the emerging market of china that has a population of like two times the U.S. and we have Google which is doing quite well relative the the SnP 500. But in this market plagued with low volume and high volatility, I believe that no matter how you feel about one it is obvious that the other would make a good hedge. Take to day for example. The Dow opened down 100+ points. Google has retraced its way back to yesterdays close and Google is fighting its way through all the resistance. If you are going to trade these volitie stocks I think its good idea to hedge urself against adverse conditions that could wipe out your portfolio. With that said take a look at this chart. It shows the relationship of bidu minus goog. And Should you trade it right it could prove to provide a nice percentage gain in return....
Bidu-Goog

Where to from here?

Today the markets opened much unlike any other day. Once again we where hit with a spike in volatility as the vix bounced off the 20 handle and volume once again shriveled up on the down move. Heading into the end of the day I ask myself the same question I always do. Where do we go from here?

Goog declined nicely as I thought it should and Bidu found support on the 500 dollar mark and has started to elevate into the close. Talking light of my last post I would have to say that it may be time to cut loose that goog put and if you have the balls add to that bidu call. Why on earth would one do that....

Looking at the daily chart I can see how one would be discouraged into going long. But a down market is the perfect time to buy when you consider our current technical situation. In my opinion I would pay close attention to todays close. I think we have a good chance of making A huge upside leap in the broad markets and that could be pretty lifting for certain belweithers on the major indices...

Stay tuned all my trading buddies I will post some charts for conformation and should you also have a stand on the recent price action or would like to share anything that caught your eye feel free to leave a reply in the comment section....

Trade well Trade smart Trade Own.....

-0d39r33zk

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Trade Own

High volitility and low volume have created a very nice trading atmosphere as of late. By myself this has been observed most in the tech sector. With bidu on its highs and goog severely wounded, this past few days of consolidation may be signaling for a more directional move in price. While I am long term bullish on both stocks I believe that bidu will lead the race higher to 600 and goog will follow but not before testing for support around the 500 region. In the short term I think there may be a good opertunity for a good pairs trade of bidu calls and goog puts.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Bullish but patient...

It's been 2 months since my last video and the market has remained determined to retrace it's 2008 losses. In that last video i stated that I didn't believe that we would sustain any relevant downside price action until we reach the 1145 mark on the S&P e-mini futures. As can be seen on this chart we have reached that level. Topping out at 1148 we have put in a significant amount of long red candles leaving us resting at support at the 1050 region.

So now the question is where do we go from here?

With a near 10% unemployment rate and California being considered to be the first failed state, Sovereign nations finding themselves in need of liquidity after falling victim to an appetite for to much risk; it's still an understatement to say that the world as we no it is in great peril. I am not sure on the path that it will take but the destination is almost certain. I believe that the right now America is in a position to prosper with epic proportions. The process that this will take is vast and it certainly will not happen over night however that is the beauty in its design. When considering the size and scope of the problems that we are facing as a nation it  no longer matter not what color tie One likes to pick when they vote to know that once we come together we can ensure a better future for younger generations.

I know that is a lot to get out or put in to one chart but end the end when you make a trade you are not just trading pieces of paper. With the political, economic and social agendas that have been proven to move todays markets, I would not be so quick to short the future. However bullish I remain in light of the recent events I am still a trader. As a trader I look at THIS CHART of the SnP only one thought comes to mind... "Nuclear Winter"
What is nuclear winter?

Stay tuned for my next video....

Trade Well, Trade Smart, Trade Own...